Аннотация: Why don't I like Zhirinovsky's new electoral initiative for Furgal? A political sketch.
Why don't I like Zhirinovsky's new electoral initiative for Furgal? A political sketch.
Mr. Zhirinovsky announced his new idea. He is considering the possibility of putting Sergei Furgal at the head of the Liberal Democratic Party's list in the elections to the State Duma.
'06 August 2020 at 19:10. (...) Vladimir Zhirinovsky said that the Liberal Democratic Party will put the ex-governor of the Khabarovsk Krai Sergei Furgal at the head of the party list in the elections to the State Duma in 2021. He stated this on the air of the radio station "Echo of Moscow". " (https://habarov.today/2020-08-06/ldpr-mojet-postavit-Sergeia-furgala-vo-glave-partiynogo-spiska-na-viborah-v-gosdumu)
Here a chance to start with a general assessment of the LDPR party and the main initiatives of Mr. Zhirinovsky. That is, to start with the general themes and then to move on to the specific questions.
But we skip this logical point and immediately begin with our opinion on Zhirinovsky's new electoral idea (with Furgal at the head of the party list).
Firstly. We are making an assumption. As of today, August 12, 2020, Sergei Furgal is arguably much more popular than the entire Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (including Mr Zhirinovsky). To go to the polls together with Furgal is, of course, safer. The LDPR organizes micro-mass events, but no one goes out in favour of this party day after day in the format of street demonstrations.
Secondly. The electoral system of Russia is not much different from the electoral system of Belarus. The numbers are questionable. If we conditionally estimate the popularity of Sergei Furgal at 100, then the elections may show 5. And this will be used, will be turned against Furgal. His supporters are "a few malicious people." The probability that the elections will show a very low popularity of the Liberal Democratic Party - this probability is quite high. Why would Furgal need all this dregs [unpleasant news]?
Thirdly. Let's take the most beautiful (and most unlikely) option. By coincidence, the Liberal Democratic Party gets a huge percentage of the votes. Higher authorities recognize Furgal. He is vacated and takes a seat in the State Duma. (He cannot take another place - because of the need to obey the will of the voters and because other places are occupied). Furgal's value lies in his Far Eastern personal history and in the elements of his sympathy for the Khabarovsk Krai and for its inhabitants. In the most beautiful version, there is one person in the governor's chair, and Furgal is in the State Duma. (It's conceived a thin matter, I must admit ... And the sheep are safe, and the wolves are with food ...). With this option, Furgal gained freedom, but turned into a participant in the play that was organized on the political stage. Supporters of Sergei Furgal are partly satisfied that he has found freedom, but they are partly disappointed with Furgal's moral degradation. The likelihood of this most excellent option is approximately zero, and there is no point in counting on it. Emotionally, this option is relatively unattractive to supporters of Sergei Furgal and is perceived as unrealistic.
The above considerations explain why I do not like the new initiative of Mr. Zhirinovsky.
For a number of reasons, Furgal's reputation as a patriot of the Far East and as a relatively independent regional politician (may be this an exaggeration?), has outgrown the reputation of the Liberal Democratic Party and Zhirinovsky.
There is no guarantee that the achieved advantage will be retained by Sergei Furgal. But I would like to hope for a successful scenario. (The place and role of the LDPR in it are minimal) ...
August 12, 2020 07:56
Translation from Russian into English: August 12, 2020 15:22.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Почему мне не нравится новая электоральная инициатива Жириновского для Фургала? Политический скетч'.