Аннотация: The Story about the interest in the Bureya theme in the evening on February 7, 2019
The Story about the interest in the Bureya theme in the evening on February 7, 2019
1) Information on works on elimination of the (former) natural dam on the Bureya River.
"https://news.mail.ru/incident/36228440/
12 hours ago, source: Habarovsky kray segodnya
The anomaly will remain dangerous to residents of settlements on coast of Bureya
During a strong flood the blockage [natural dam] will raise per day a river level on several meters.
In the area of the Bureya anomaly, work continues on a clearing the riverbed from the stone and soil from the collapsed hill. As reported to Habarovsky kray segodnya news Agency in the Russian Defense Ministry, army engineers carried out already the ninth blasting with the purpose to expand and deepen the channel for water pass. This time sappers used 30 tons of TNT.
- It is good information, but we to military have number of questions - comments on work flow on Bureya the Officer-in-Charge of department of water management of the Amur Basin Water Administration Nikolay Yefimov. - Officially representatives of the Ministry of Defence declared the end of operation by February 20, but is not clear - whether they will punch the second channel in the blockage [in the natural dam], as it was told earlier, and and whether they will be able to achieve project indicators in the first and so far the only channel.
I will remind, on January 28 the hydropost on Bureya below a blockage showed the level of 247.25 meters, level at Chekunda was ... 253.76 - the difference between pools made about 6.5 meters.
[(As of 07.02.2019 level ... in Bureya [reservoir] - 246.26 m of BS (NPU - 256.0 m), [http://voda.mnr.gov.ru/activities/detail.php?ID=545180])]
It was planned that sappers will bring the level of a bottom of the channel to a mark of 250 meters, now, as far as I know, 240 - and each meter of its depth and width increases its [channel] capacity, reducing the probability of sharp rising of water at floods. For the Bureya River, located in mountains, the possibility of a catastrophic flood is estimated as "one-percentage", or once a hundred years. But in this case the huge landslide [the natural dam], despite of punched in it the channel, in few hours will raise water level on meters, and can even on tens of meters which will pose a threat not only to the inhabitants of the nearby Chekunda, but also the Elga, which is upstream...
- Level of Bureya at Chekunda dropped from maximum almost by 15 centimeters now and decreases to 2 centimeters a day - Nikolay Yefimov continues. - Bandwidth of the channel, punched in the blockage, remains small, up to 20 cubic meters a second, and in case of a flood, let and an improbable, one time in hundred years, inflow will reach 7 thousand cubic meters per second. I have doubts that military engineers considered this circumstance when they said that they will finish operation by February 20 ..." [https://news.mail.ru/incident/36228440/]
Comment.
Has the main task been completed? Has the normal hydrological regime of the Bureya reservoir been restored?
In order to answer these questions, it is necessary to define the concept of "normal hydrological regime of the Bureya reservoir".
Does this concept mean the absence of possible problems (landslides, flooding, ice jams, etc.)? Obviously, no, it doesn't. Problems were always and always will be.
Does this notion mean the complete elimination of the natural dam - both the above-water level and the underwater parts?
Obviously, that doesn't mean. Full clearing of the channel from the arisen natural dam is objectively impossible. The volume of rocky masses that blocked the Bureya River is huge (about 24.5 million cubic meters).
Therefore, the concept of "normal hydrological regime of the Bureya reservoir" means (1) the elimination of the risk of breakthrough of water masses through the natural dam with the formation of relatively high and powerful waves, (2) the recovery of the hydraulic connection between the "upper" and "lower" parts of the reservoir.
Apparently, in relatively "normal" conditions, a breakthrough (a demolition - full or partial, a collapse) of the remaining part of the natural dam, with the simultaneous appearance of a powerful wave, is not possible. - As in the presence of the man-made channel (proran) pressure of water masses on remained (after emergence of the man-made channel) parts of a dam sharply decreases.
Apparently, absolutely accurate calculations and conclusions in connection with the scale and originality of the situation on this issue no one can do.
Possible value judgments. If the subjective opinions of military specialists, military engineers, now engaged in the creation of the channel (prorana), will issue a document of a Commission (or individual reports), and this document will be such that the risks of breakthrough (demolition, collapse - full or partial) of the remaining elements of the dam and the formation of a dangerous wave are minimal, in this case, the most natural option is to take this opinion as a basis and formulation of the conclusion: "Consider, that the normal hydrological regime of the Bureya reservoir was restored."
Knowledge of a situation, experience of the performed works (on creation of the channel - proran), call of duty, professional qualification and an intuition - all this will become the base of trust to subjective opinion of military experts, military engineers (in the conditions of objective lack of opportunities to perform complex exact calculation because of scales and non-standard of a situation).
In general, and plans of that useful and timely works, which are actually already executed, were based, as it is possible to assume, on trust to professionalism and an intuition of military experts, military engineers.
Naturally, the data of monitoring of the reservoir could be the basis for correction of the drawn subjective conclusions.
Will an additional necessary work stop? After completion of work by military engineers (military personnel) in connection with the completion of their tasks - the restoration of the normal hydrological regime of the Bureya reservoir?
What will be the content and scope of such (possible) additional work?
"January 18, 2019...
- Our fears about the complete isolation of the two parts of the Bureya from each other confirmed..., - the acting head of the water management Department of the Amur basin and water management Nikolai Efimov told. - ...Now we are thinking about the possible size of this slot [channel], but it is already necessary to connect design organizations to this case.
As Nikolay Yefimov noted, further work to ensure the normal functioning of the Bureyskaya HPP,which is downstream, RusHydro is ready to provide through the involvement of its own design organizations..." [https://todaykhv.ru/news/incident/17993/]
This quotation implies the possibility of (1) preparing a draft of the works and (2) carrying out further work to ensure the normal functioning of the Bureya HPP, which is downstream, through the involvement of RusHydro organizations.
What will be this possible project? Whether this possible project is necessary? If the military personnel completes the works (at this stage), then civil experts will answer on these (and on others) questions, to continue the necessary work.
It can be assumed that the incoming monitoring data on the situation in the Bureya reservoir will clarify the action plans.
2) An overlapping of a rivers. A dams. A meteorites. A general problems of water and energy resources. Russia, world. History, news, forecasts.
Scientists at McGill University (Canada) found that the melting of ice will lead to unpredictable consequences for the earth's climate, including the chaotic occurrence of extreme weather conditions and changes in air temperature around the globe. this was reported in a press release on EurekAlert!..." [https://lenta.ru/news/2019/02/07/chaos/?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop]
February 7, 2019 22:34
Translation from Russian into English: February 8, 2019 01:13.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский "Рассказ об интересе к Бурейской теме вечером 7 февраля 2019 г.".