Аннотация: The speed of spending the state financial reserves. An economic essay.
The speed of spending the state financial reserves. An economic essay.
The law on the state budget can be called the financial plan of the country with a degree of conventionality.
If there are unplanned expenses, then in this case - when trying to keep the financial plan unchanged - reserves are used.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation published the following message:
"Dynamics of the international reserves of the Russian Federation
As of March 25, 2022, the international reserves of the Russian Federation amounted to USD 604.4 billion, having decreased by USD 38.8 billion compared to February 18, 2022. The main factors behind the reduction in reserves were foreign exchange interventions, foreign exchange refinancing, as well as foreign exchange revaluation of assets.
March 31, 2022" [unofficial translation](https://cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/svs/int-res/)
From February 18, 2002 (inclusive) to March 25, 2022 is 36 days.
If you divide $38.8 billion over 36 days, you get about $1 billion a day.
This, probably, to be the average level of unplanned expenses.
If this level of unplanned spending continues, how long will the reserves last?
If the international reserves are 604.4 billion US dollars, then they will be enough for about 600 days.
"As Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said, ... Russia has lost access to about half of its reserves (about $300 billion)" (https://www.forbes.ru/finansy/460975-cb-soobsil-o-sokrasenii-zolotovalutnyh-rezervov-pocti-na-40-mlrd?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop)
With $300 billion in reserves and $1 billion a day of unplanned spending, the reserves will last less than a year.
"The latest data on the structure of foreign exchange reserves was published as of June 30, 2021. According to them, 32.3% of the regulator's gold and foreign exchange assets were in euros, 16.4% in dollars, 13.1% in yuan, 6.5% in pounds sterling, and 21.7% in gold. " (https://www.forbes.ru/finansy/460975-cb-soobsil-o-sokrasenii-zolotovalutnyh-rezervov-pocti-na-40-mlrd?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop)
It seems that there were difficulties with financial transactions denominated in euros, in dollars, in pounds sterling ...
Maybe there are no problems when buying and selling a gold?
Probably no problem with yuan...
To get the overall picture, we multiply 300 by 0.131. We get 39.3 "conditional" billion in "available" reserves ...
How long would that amount be enough for an unplanned expense of $1 billion a day?
Apparently, the sphere of public finance can become a source of very interesting information.
April 1, 2022 01:42
Translation from Russian into English: April 1, 2022 02:03.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский "Скорость расходования государственных финансовых резервов. Экономический очерк".
{ 2886. Скорость расходования государственных финансовых резервов. Экономический очерк.
MMDCCCLVI. The speed of spending the state financial reserves. An economic essay. }