Аннотация: The Sketch about the desire to hear a science, experts and forecasters
The Sketch about the desire to hear a science, experts and forecasters
Sergei Sergeyevich tried to understand flows of information.
For example, a flood in Krymsk (Krasnodar Krai) in 2012. It seems, the situation was very difficult? There were victims? 170 people?
However, if to be guided by resources of human memory, all expert estimates and forecasts came down to some statements of workers of Goskomgidromet. Memory is memory, there can be also inaccuracies...
The Bureya situation (2018-2019). Apparently, this is the only example of a relatively timely and relatively successful resolution of the extremely dangerous situation.
Everything began, "as usual". All are busy. New Year's holidays. Performances. An important meetings.
However, the circumstances were such that the extreme danger of the problem was identified, and the right strategy for solving the problem was chosen, and competent tactical techniques were implemented.
A major flood was avoided.
The breakthrough of the natural dam was avoided.
It is interesting that in the course of solving the Bureya problem, consumers of media products were happy to learn the speaker's opinion "from science".
He made business trips, gave estimates, and generated forecasts.
He was pulling an information blanket towards himself as best he could. The media were eager to meet him. And what remains to them? First, titles, ranks covered a consciousness with smoke. Secondly, an editorial task. Thirdly ,.. Fourthly ,..
The situation allowed.
If you look at the practical actions, no one attached much importance to his estimates, his forecasts.
The solution of the Bureya problem was carried out on other strategic and tactical algorithms.
And if all goes well, why not show off himself? Why not declare yourself an expert?
People will solve the problem...
Yes, there are large (great) scientific minds! There are experts, specialists and forecasters.
Sergei Sergeyevich is surprised. He on the Irkutsk (Siberian, Far East) floods especially doesn't watch. But - at least 25 dead (when solving the Bureya problem, it seems, - no dead - with the utmost danger of the situation and extremely risky work).
And where are the big (great) scientific minds? Where are the experts, specialists and forecasters?
In the course of a successful solution of the Bureya problem the opinion of the speaker "from science" was constantly present in the media space (in the course of practical actions if this opinion was taken into account, then the work would either not be started, or be stopped, or significantly slowed down). During the Irkutsk (Siberian, Far Eastern) floods, Sergei Sergeevich does not hear anything similar.
Maybe there is an opinion? Published somewhere? (They like to publish documents - reports, results of researches, of business trips, of calculations!).
Apparently, Sergei Sergeyevich is listening to the radio and looking for on the Internet not enough actively...
But, nevertheless, there are analytical estimates... Today it was reported that the Great Siberian wildfire of 2019 captured more than 3 million hectares...
There was an analytical opinion.
But not from "science", and from some, apparently, deputy.
The reason (one of the reasons) of enormous natural disaster that the former Minister Donskoy made the changes in the instruction regulating a wildfire fighting...
"It is very interesting, and reminds a political fantasy!" "But where speakers from science? Where their forecasts, analytical estimates?"
"It's too late to listen to outstanding scientists. But there is a hope that they not will parasitize in the media space on someone else's intellectual potential, and will bring some benefit - in addition to statements about their deep knowledge and their own competence," - Sergei Sergeyevich sighed.
On July 29, 2019 19:53
Translation from Russian into English: July 29, 2019 22:23.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Скетч о желании услышать науку, экспертов и прогнозистов'.