The reign of Hugo Chavez-Nicolas Maduro seems a quite a lucky period.
Difficulties, anyway, are overcome, events go forward.
There is a temptation to find a historical analogy to this reign.
If we focus on European political history, we recall the leaders of the predominantly authoritarian (- totalitarian) type.
If they were not a successful, then they would not become leaders.
Who is suitable for the analogy?
Stalin, like, does not fit. Under all the "circumstances" of his rule, economic growth during his reign was (almost) unprecedented. Science, culture and education were developing. Is the economy growing during the reign of Hugo Chavez-Nicolas Maduro?
To look for analogies among leaders of the Iberian Peninsula of the period of 30-40-50 years? They, despite all the conflicts, have maintained good relations with the United States and Great Britain...
To remember someone else from leaders authoritatively (-totalitarian) type? I do not want to move through over the boundaries of politeness.
To try to look for analogies in the Latin American or Asian political history?
Imperceptibly the assumption comes: what, if the case - not in a continental (civilization-territorial) placement of political history?
What if the political luck is connected with a "raw materials luck" ("oil luck")?
There is a "raw materials pie" - this in itself, perhaps, a luck.
If there is a "raw materials pie", then it with a certain level of art is devided and is distributed.
For millennia the mankind was engaged in agriculture, cattle breeding. Treasure hunting was a rare activity.
How many people will refuse off a "free goods"?
In some country there will be more such people, in some - less.
If there are free, gratuitous benefits, many elements, achievements of civilization are in question. Why is democratic governance necessary? Separation of powers? "Troublesome" education? "Fun" culture? Economic development , demanding expenses of time and efforts?
Maybe it is more important to become a "correct element" in the algorithm of dividing the "raw materials pie"?
If agriculture and cattle breeding were the occupations of mankind for thousands of years, the "raw materials abundance" - the effect on a historical scale is short-term. Maybe precedents of political luck, based on (relative) raw materiasl abundance, are being created before our eyes?
What historical precedents a luck, based on the abundance of raw materials, will create - we, may be, will get the opportunity to see it.
January 14, 2019 20:59
Translation from Russian into English: January 14, 2019 21:51.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский "Монолог о политической удачливости".