Аннотация: The laws of Russial political performance. Kamchatka-Avacha version of 2020. A political essay.
The laws of Russial political performance. Kamchatka-Avacha version of 2020. A political essay.
1. A stage of confidentiality.
As follows from media reports, it became known about the poisoning of Avacha Bay back in September 2020 - during sports competitions. A number of participants in the competition sought medical help.
Competitions are an official event.
Consequently, the problem became known back in September 2020.
According to the laws of Russial political performance, at this stage, the following argumentation is applied: 'all this is unimportant, insignificant,' 'we didn't figure it out,' 'we didn't pay attention,' 'political pawns knew but did not report to the top persons', etc. etc.
The confidentiality stage is clearly visible both in the history of the Bureya problem (2018-2019) and in the chronology of the Norilsk ecological disaster (2020).
2. The stage of transition of the problem to the public space.
Through public - as a rule, not through official, not through state - channels, information about the problem leaks out, enters the public space.
Here, pictures (photographs) taken by ordinary citizens, publications on social networks, as well as various kinds of pictures taken from above (from satellites or from quadcopters) play a role, allowing the public to understand the scale of the problem.
A local resident with his phone played a key role in the history of the Bureya problem. This resident took photographs of place of events. There was also a satellite image. In situation with the Norilsk disaster - publications of local residents on social networks. In the Kamchatka ecological disaster, there were also photographs by the population and publications on social networks. Much attention is now being paid to images of Avacha Bay, taken from a height (apparently, from a quadrocopter. At first, it was said about space images).
3. The reaction of the top level persons.
Variants are possible here - depending on the coincidence of circumstances and on the mood of senior officials and on the possibility of using the situation for political PR.
In the history of the Bureya problem, we saw a ten-day (approximately) pause - 'reflections'. In the meantime, river water was accumulating upstream of the spontaneous dam.
The Norilsk ecological disaster of was used as an example of supreme solicitude. Loud criticism of the Krasnoyarsk regional authorities, the introduction of the high-level emergency regime. Public meetings, etc. A little later, a similar situation occurred, but it was not suitable for PR. And no public demonstration actions similar to the Norilsk disaster ones were shown.
At this stage sacrifices of pawns and even more significant pieces are possible.
In the case of the Kamchatka ecological disaster, a weight machine's pots fluctuated, and, perhaps, it was not clear how the situation would be treated at the top.
Yuri Trutnev spoke some harsh words at this stage. He demanded something ...
4. A determination of the official speaker.
A person is needed who speaks on behalf of the official circles, whose words will be a tuning fork for budget (and near budget) media.
In the case of the Bureya problem, a certain expert on water problems became such an official speaker.
The peculiarity of the Norilsk ecological disaster was the inaccessibility of the terrain for media representatives, so the need for a speaker was not very acute. Yet the corresponding role was assigned to a certain official.
In the situation with the Kamchatka ecological catastrophe, a well-known official of the regional level tries himself as an official speaker.
5. What's next?
5.1. The general tendency is towards hushing up and (or) coloring events with a color of insignificance. "Nothing to talk about!"
5.2. A putting forward an official version of the reasons for what happened. Here, either obscure, little legible judgments, or outright absurdity are possible.
The official version will be picked up by the budget (and near budget) media and will be spreading among the population, which depressed by economic, recreational, urbanistic ... politics. A tired population is ready to accept all variants.
5.3. Compilation of a package of information on the measures taken. This package should appear to be effective, timely, scientific ...
In the case of the Norilsk ecological disaster of 2020, according to the some judgments of some officials, it can be concluded that pollution has reached the Kara Sea and the Arctic Ocean. But was the Kara Sea polluted? We have not met an official statement on this score.
It is not a bad option to provide the public of calming information, portion by portion, with a gradual fading of the relevance of the topic and with the redirecting public attention to other problems.
As a result, conditions are created for the repetition of catastrophic events after a relatively short period of time.
Further - everything is according to the scheme. The stage of confidentiality - the stage of the transition of the problem to the public space - the reaction of the top officials - the definition of the official speaker - the official version of the reasons for what happened ...
However, a huge territories of the Russian Federation (for example, in the Arctic) have been declared territories of limited access ... And in many cases, a problem that has arisen - she is boiling and continuing boiling into itself at the confidentiality stage ...
October 4, 2020 16:09
Translation from Russian into English: October 4, 2020 21:58.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Законы российского политического перформанса. Камчатско-Авачинская версия 2020 года. Политический очерк'.