Аннотация: The Bureya problem. The mountain of forecasts gave birth to a project worth 31 million rubles. The essay on the modern history of the Russial Far East.
The Bureya problem. The mountain of forecasts gave birth to a project worth 31 million rubles. The essay on the modern history of the Russial Far East.
Around December 2018, a huge spontaneous dam appeared on the Bureya River, within the Verkhnebureinsky District of the Khabarovsk Krai of Russia, for unknown reasons. The dam blocked the powerful Siberian, Far Eastern river Bureya.
River water began to accumulate upstream the dam. There was a danger of (1) flooding of huge territories (according to some forecasts - the entire Verkhnebureinsky District) and a number of strategic objects, (2) a sudden breakthrough of a spontaneous dam with an appearence of a huge wave moving downstream of the Bureya River towards China. [Verkhnebureinsky District: Area Total 63,561 km2 (24,541 sq mi); for example: Austria (the Republic of Austria): Area Total 83,879 km2 (32,386 sq mi)] [The approximate distance from the spontaneous dam to the territory of China is 300 kilometers; there are two hydroelectric power plants along this path]
At the first stage, judging by indirect indications, the Far Eastern (and therefore the federal?) authorities had some information about the situation, but this information was not provided to the general public.
The second phase began after the discovery of a spontaneous dam by a local hunter. The increasing risk of situation was compensated by the forecasts of a certain specialist - a representative of academic science. At this stage, the specialist expressed doubts about the possibility of any effective action to resolve the situation. The place is remote, it is almost impossible to deliver equipment there ...
But, in addition to this authority from academic science, there were other people. They were worried about the fate of the Russian Far East, they did not want to live in the country (Russia) after the second disaster, similar in scale and political results to the Chernobyl disaster (1986).
The discussion (albeit not very broad, but effective) of the colossal risks associated with the emergence of a spontaneous dam, and about a possible ways to solve the situation was lounched on Internet.
As a result, the RF Ministry of Defense got involved in solving the problem.
This is the first failure of a forecaster from academic science.
But he did not subside.
After the start of the work of the grouping of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to create a channel in a spontaneous dam, a forecaster from academic science issued the following package of forecasts. (1) The work is very dangerous - since there is a high risk of a "new landslide", (2) the work is ineffective, because the river water will still encounter an obstacle - even in the presence of an artificial canal, (3) the canal will be clogged with the remains of trees, (4) a flooding will be - even in the presence of an artificial channel - of villages upstream of the Bureya River, including the village of Chekunda.
At this stage, the governor of the Khabarovsk Krai Sergei Furgal, who provided real, indisputable necessary assistance in solving the Bureya problem, became very interested in the forecast of the expected flooding of Chekunda.
The idea of resettlement of the Chekunda population to other settlements was put forward. In our opinion, in an area, in the territory where fluctuations in the levels of natural reservoirs constantly occur, this is not a very smart idea. Perhaps the entire Far East should be resettled to the European part of Russia?
After the successful, heroic creation of an artificial canal (February 12, 2019), the spontaneous dam suddenly collapsed (due to natural causes) (May 7, 2019). The artificial canal gradually expanded. The hydrological regime of the Bureya River was restored. The channel is not clogged with tree debris. It is possible that the components of the former dam continue to be eroded by river water.
Owing to the timely created artificial channel, the sudden destruction (due to natural causes) of the spontaneous dam was not accompanied by the appearance of a huge wave heading towards China.
The shortsightedness of the very idea of evicting people from Chekunda - in principle - was obvious. But Governor Furgal actively maneuvered around this topic. He sent an application for funding in the amount of about 300 million rubles to the federal center. For some reason, he was especially worried about the fate of the local cemetery.
Of course, the cemetery attracts attention and evokes emotions. The gravestone in the cemetery in Chekunda allowed dating the conditional time of foundation of Chekunda - it's the first half of the 19th century ... ['An old monument in the village cemetery indicates a burial of 1870'] Nevertheless, all over Russia, according to the media, many villages are being freed from the population ... And each village has a cemetery ... How many are there? Abandoned cemeteries? In Rostov-on-Don, the territory of several cemeteries (at least one - in the area of the Sports Palace) was once occupied by other objects ... In general, the topic is important, and no one would mind the creation of a new cemetery at Chekunda in a new place ... What is needed for this? To put up a fence, a gate, make the necessary decision?
Meanwhile, the maneuvers around the topic of eliminating the ancient Chekunda ended for a number of reasons.
The representative of academic science (for the time being) remained afloat and continued to generate his forecasts. (He still goes on various expeditions funded by some grants and continues to give comments with an important look ...).
However, the main supporter of the initiative to receive 300 million rubles from federal funds has left the political distance.
But nevertheless, the predictions of a specialist from academic science gave their results. The some people managed to get 31 million rubles for the relocation of the cemetery (situated near Chekunda) ... The money was received from the budget of Khabarovsk Krai... The time of elections ... The so-called single voting day ...
We, of course, do not know what problems are of the highest priority in Chekunda and in the Khabarovsk Krai ... So we refrain from commenting ... Maybe, in fact, this is a priority topic ...
Why are academic forecasts good? Even if they are not coming true, these forecasts are giving an additional energy to a state tranches, these forecasts are pushing the movement of state budget money ...
MDLII. Governor Sergei Furgal and the Bureya problem. The experimental essay - an attempt of a partial biographical reconstruction. - July 9, 2020.]
[Some additional publications:
MCCLVIII. The level of decision-making or how the media machine works. The sketch. - February 1, 2020.
MDLXVII. Yury Trutnev. The experimental essay - an attempt of a partial biographical reconstruction. - July 17, 2020.
MDCLXXVI. Our man is in the Pentagon. Vyshinsky, the overcoming the partition of the Commonwealth, the human rights activities. The note. - August 28, 2020.
MDCCXXV. The awarding of 20 people for the fight against coronavirus and a some questions. The note. - September 22, 2020.]
September 24, 2020 04:05
Translation from Russian into English: September 24, 2020 22:10.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Бурейская проблема. Гора прогнозов родила проект на 31 миллион рублей. Очерк современной истории российского Дальнего Востока'.