Аннотация: Promising economic scenarios, 7 directions of economic pressure on the regime, a moral context, a new chances for Lukashenko. A political essay.
Promising economic scenarios, 7 directions of economic pressure on the regime, a moral context, a new chances for Lukashenko. A political essay.
On December 15, 2020, the office of ex-presidential candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya announced a program - 7 DIRECTIONS OF ECONOMIC PRESSURE onto the regime of Alexander Lukashenko. (eadaily.com/ru/news/2020/12/15/belorusskaya-oppoziciya-ne-planiruet-platit-po-dolgam-lukashenko)
As events unfold, PERSPECTIVE ECONOMIC SCENARIOS for Belarus emerge more and more clearly.
Let's list them:
1. A baseline scenario - a maneuvering around the decreasing share of the raw material (oil) pie, the share, received from Russia.
2. A dissolution of the economy of Belarus in the economy of the Western World. Belarus continues to exist without significant changes, without economic losses and shocks. She is seeking opportunities for free migration of the population to the EU (and, perhaps, to the USA, Great Britain, and other countries). The uncompetitive economy is gradually stopping, "frozing". A significant part of the working population emigrates on a cyclical or permanent basis.
A variation of this scenario can be considered the "Estonian" scenario, which, in addition, assumes (1) a very skillfully and thinly carried out privatization and (2) a purposeful economic orientation mainly to one or several countries of the Western World (for Estonia it's the Sweden, and, may be, partly, Finland ).
3. An attempt to increase the potential for competitiveness - due to the Velikolithuanian (East-Republican) integration, the creation of the Velikolithuanian (East-Republican) economic space, the establishment of the Economic Council, through the distribution of markets, a conferencial indicative planning, due to the construction of transcontinental transport corridors and a system of logistics centers , by stimulating high-tech industries.
4. "A dissolution three minus" - this is dissolution, but in the most unfavorable variant. Under this scenario, the dissolution catalyst is not a positive incentive - not the right to leave and work outside Belarus, but a negative incentive - sharp economic shocks, the growth of financial debt (hopeless to pay out), and the collapse of the economy.
What are the 7 DIRECTIONS OF ECONOMIC PRESSURE on the regime of Alexander Lukashenko?
"It is proposed to introduce internal sanctions, which include" restricting by Belarusians purchases of goods and services of companies in which repressions take place and which support the regime ", as well as" limiting payments to the state budget, including taxes and purchases of the main excisable goods - alcohol and cigarettes " ... In addition, it provides for "investigation and limitation of corruption schemes for the supply of goods from Belarus by private companies close to the regime", "freezing of international cooperation with the public sector", including by the EBRD, IMF, EIB, World Bank "in favor of cooperation with civil society Belarus ". It is also about 'stopping international cooperation and financing for Belarusian state banks' and 'limiting credit lines from international banks for subsidiary banks within the country'.
In addition, it is proposed to "close international financial markets for the issue of new government bonds", "launch a discussion on the revision of the payment of government bonds issued by the regime after August 9, 2020", "restriction of exports of key state-owned enterprises", as well as "stopping foreign investment - and from enterprises, and from other states '. According to the office of Tsikhanouskaya, "if these mechanisms do not work, and the repression continues, the disconnection of the state banks of Belarus from the SWIFT system can be applied." (eadaily.com/ru/news/2020/12/15/belorusskaya-oppoziciya-ne-planiruet-platit-po-dolgam-lukashenko) [unofficial translation]
In general, all this is not bad ... So I would think if it was not about Belarus, but about a lecturer's speech at some Higher Economics University ... Why not to try? The effect will be ... Moreover, it is necessary to distinguish between Elon Musk (and people of his type) and oligarchs ... This is understandable and obvious ...
However, in this case we are talking about Belarus.
Most likely, economic pressure will lead to the "A dissolution three minus" scenario.
Here we must state with regret that NEGATIVE INCENTIVES ARE PREVAILING, ARE PREDOMINATING OVER A POSITIVE ONES.
1. Slowly and ineffectively, workable organizational structures are being built. It turns out that the results of the August 2020 elections are not clear enough, there is no moral right ('the moral authority') to call Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya the President-elect! What a news! And when and where were the election results clear enough? When were they not controversial? It remains to win the next elections (for example, in 2021 or in 2022), and then get 150 opinions of experts and analytical organizations on the presence of election violations. And then - go into a mode of uncertainty - the results of the elections are not clear! - until the moment when Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is replaced by some other figure. (For example, Yeltsin and Grachev came after Gorbachev and Yakovlev). As soon as some other figure is established, firmly takes place, and Tsikhanouskaya is guaranteed to leave the stage, then all ambiguities with the election results will suddenly disappear.
2. The horizon of the themes of numerous international negotiations of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya does not go beyond the next (possible) elections. How to reach a new elections? How to held, to carry a new elections ? How to organize international control over elections?
Where are the promising topics? How will Belarus live after the elections? Which path will she take? Which economic scenario will she choose? The scenario "A dissolution three minus" gradually appears. There is practically no mention of integration, there is practically no information about a free migration regime, but there is talk of a stabilization fund of $ 5 billion. After activating 7 directions of economic pressure on the regime, these $ 5 billion, as well as other amounts, will gradually pass into the category of uncollectible (hopeless) debts. Further will be a privatization, which will be declared effective action, and so on, according to the well-known scenario.
3. The mechanisms, algorithms of a cultural influence are not used sufficiently. In four months, a huge cultural layer has been formed, expressing the aspirations, views, hopes, impressions of the protesters Belarusians. This is a powerful new culture of the new Belarus, albeit this new culture is at the initial stage. How is this cultural layer used? Almost it is not used. See above: Workable organizational structures are being built slowly and ineffectively.
4. The influence on the Belarusian society through the use of updated symbols is developing poorly.
Almost everything boils down to the red and white flag. But this line is insufficient and very limited. The emphasis on the 30-year achievements of independent Belarus is more a Lukashenko's skillful propaganda myth than a reality. The smaller the share of the raw material pie received by Belarus from Russia will be, the more the ears of this myth will stick out.
Why is a 30-year period attractive? This is an era of hopes, an era of some peace, some achievements, some (not a much) prosperity ... This period is over. There are pleasant memories, nostalgia, fatigue, and an intuitive feeling of hopelessness.
The red and white flag doesn't work only for protests, in favour of Belarus. He also works in favour of the myth of the 30-year achievements of independent Belarus (under the leadership of Lukashenko).
Where is the symbolism with historical associations, linkage, interconnections, directing attention to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd Rzeczpospolita? I did not notice such symbolism. Consequently, the representatives of the Belarusian people, resisting the Lukashenko's regime, de facto have a tendency to maintain the myth of the 30-year achievements of independent Belarus (under the leadership of Lukashenko).
Where is the image of Roman Bondarenko - a victim of the regime?
Thus, the program - 7 directions of economic pressure on the regime of Alexander Lukashenko.
The stronger the pressure, the more obviously the promising economic scenario "A dissolution three minus" will be launched. And the more new chances Lukashenko will acquire.
Lukashenko in this position is not a retrograde figure, not a supporter of the depressive path of development, not an opponent of normal life in the Western style. He becomes a kind of savior of relatively depressive economic stability, a guarantor of receiving that share of the raw material pie that can still be obtained from Russia.
Summation. Under the current strategy, negative incentives to influence Belarus (economic pressure) prevail over positive ones (favorable models of the future; an integration and migration projects; cultural influence; an effective symbols). With such a predominance of negative incentives over positive ones, Lukashenko is gradually gaining weight as a kind of savior of the remnants of the 'wonderful past' - he works, he acts through the myth of the 30-year achievements of independent Belarus (under Lukashenko's leadership). - Why not continue the period of these achievements?
In this situation, positive incentives and programs of positive actions are of particular value.
December 16, 2020 06:21
Translation from Russian into English: December 16, 2020 23:06.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Перспективные экономические сценарии, 7 направлений экономического давления на режим, моральный контекст, новые шансы для Лукашенко. Политический очерк'.