Аннотация: Bolivia. "Chavez scenario" and "Maduro script". Two political hypotheses
Bolivia. "Chavez scenario" and "Maduro script". Two political hypotheses
Mass resignation in Bolivia. The central point of this massive resignation is the resignation of Bolivian President Evo Morales.
Why did he resign? -He left due to a threat to his life. That is, this action (the resignation of Morales) - forced - as if, without a legal significance.
Mass resignation. This massive resignation has led to a legal vacuum (according to media information available to users in Russia). The Constitution of Bolivia provides for a certain 'queue' - of those, who has the right to occupy the post of president of Bolivia (upon resigning from the post of a person holding this position, or - upon a successive resignation of several persons, one after another).
As a result of the mass resignation, a situation arose, which required a legal interpretation. A similar situation was not spelled out in the Constitution of Bolivia.
This action is rather strange - mass resignation ... Why such a political performance? Why not constitutionally accept power after Morales and hold new elections? Why not act in an understandable, constitutional way?
In case of a legal vacuum, what the options for subsequent planned events can be? Two hypotheses are possible here.
Hypothesis 1. The "Chavez scenario". The leadership of the army and other leaders are perplexed. They're at a loss. They ask Evo Morales to return to his post. It reminds, a little, the 'Chavez scenario' with the return to power.
Hypothesis 2. The "Maduro script". Army leadership takes - temporarily - power into their own hands. (A similar situation recently occurred in Sudan. In Sudan, the military transferred power to civilian politicians. But the ousted president of Sudan was in a difficult legal situation ...).
Well-known international political actors raise the question of the illegality of the transfer of power to the military, of the illegality of the departure of Evo Morales from the presidency. A powerful vector arises to preserve Evo Morales as president.
This scenario is somewhat reminiscent of the "Maduro scenario." Despite the all and the everything, Maduro remained in power. A kind people do not want aggravation ...
The Bolivian people, perhaps (even very possible), is a kind people. But he is looking at Venezuela not from afar. And he does not want to face the need for forced emigration from his own country. Maybe there will be less of multi-hour radio speeches, but more of a normal life?
Maybe in the coming years the situation in Bolivia will not be a perfect. But, most likely, new elections will be held, a normal people will come to power. These normal people in the new elections will be replaced by a new normal people.
Who knows? - Maybe economic prosperity will not come (in near future) ... But there will be less thrill, and there will be more of a normal, familiar, habitual life. In any case, habitual life is better than life after a sudden, forced, mass emigration ...
¡Viva Bolivia! ¡Viva Venezuela!
November 13, 2019 19:24
Translation from Russian into English: November 13, 2019 22:37.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Боливия. 'Сценарий Чавеса' и 'сценарий Мадуро'. Две политологические гипотезы'.