Аннотация: A wrong political plan of Alexander Lukashenko. A political science essay.
A wrong political plan of Alexander Lukashenko. A political science essay.
This morning I found a text on the internet.
'The dictator is returning after an important international meeting.
The officials lined up. To greet him.
He walks along the line of officials.
- Don't apologize for the third time.
- The head hurts from the flute player(ess).
- Prepare new ballots. In the new elections, I will have 50 percent plus two votes.
- Include in the new constitution, in the chapter on human rights:
- Everyone has the right to live in fear.
- Everyone has the right to be a person without rights.
- Everyone has the right to be kidnapped right on the street.
- Every kidnapped person has the right to be under pressing of prosecution ...
He had walked along a line of officials, looked everyone in the face and drove to the residence.
Returning to his residence, he convenes the Security Council and proposes:
Let's discuss constitutional reform and new elections ... ' (From the works of Diedrich Knickerbocker.)
After reading this text on the Internet, I became interested - what does the main problem of today's Belarus look like?
Modern Belarus for a normal life needs a government that enjoys universally recognized public confidence.
Is Alexander Lukashenko able to shape such a government?
Let's consider two options.
The first one is comfortable (for Lukashenko). Alexander Lukashenko is calling on the drafters of the new Constitution. All of them are people he knows, with the necessary set of titles. Lukashenko sits at the head of the table. They are on the sides. He gives the floor, follows the regulations, sums up the results, makes decisions. All those present are loyal, are in a mood of servility, they treat Lukashenko with boundless reverence.
As a result of this work, a draft Constitution appears (which does not enjoy public confidence) and a decision on new elections (plan to held under the leadership of Lukashenko and people he knows for a long time), on elections that do not enjoy public support.
Naturally, no one at the table dares to utter a word about any government of public trust.
The second option is unpleasant (for Lukashenko). Alexander Lukashenko appeals to international mediators who are convening a round table with the participation of Lukashenko, representatives of his regime, as well as with the participation of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and persons enjoying public confidence.
On the part of the Belarusian people, present people who do not personally know Lukashenko (with rare exceptions), without the necessary set of titles. Lukashenko sits at the table along with all the participants (as an equal participant). International mediators give the floor, follow the regulations, they take stock, formulate decisions. A spirit of efficiency, democracy, and not loyalty and servility (in relation to Lukashenko). Some of the participants in the event internally despise and even hate Lukashenko (from among those, who was subjected to repression).
As a result of the work of such a round table, Lukashenko and representatives of his regime retain some political weight, but a significant amount of authority is transferred to persons enjoying public confidence. The rules are fundamentally changing:
- the rules for the formation of election commissions,
- rules for the work of election commissions,
- voting rules (voting results become extremely verifiable).
In Belarus, political tension is changing to calmness and positive expectations. The economy is working normally, relations with the outside world are being restored.
It is clear that the first, pleasant, option is extremely real.
The second, unpleasant for Lukashenko, option is very little realistic. For the second option, there are no psychological qualities, no political traditions, no political skills, no effective mediators with a friendly (towards Lukashenko) history, nothing at all. Everything must either be created anew, or borrowed from a foreign political culture.
In general, so far we are observing the maneuvers of people deprived of public trust around a project that few people need and does not enjoy public support - maneuvers around the preparation of a new Constitution ...
Movement in this direction is a wrong political plan of Alexander Lukashenko.
Lukashenko starts his political machine and presses the pedals. The motor roars, picks up speed. The engine stalls. Roars again. Everything is useless, without a positive result ... Political gasoline runs out ...
September 15, 2020 21:27
Translation from Russian into English: September 15, 2020 22:28.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Ошибочный политический план Александра Лукашенко. Политологический очерк'.