Аннотация: A typical scenario for the Lake Baikal? The Uttarakhand disaster (February 7, 2021). Forecasts and trends. An essay.
A typical scenario for the Lake Baikal? The Uttarakhand disaster (February 7, 2021). Forecasts and trends. An essay.
1. A tourist area surrounded by factors (unfavorable for hydropower).
2. A tourist area. A bit of history.
3. The development of hydropower is one of the government priorities.
4. Environmental risks and environmental warnings.
5. Government incentives for hydropower.
6. Attempts to protect themselves from the power industry.
7. Information materials.
The Hindu (and several other editions) provides materials on lessons, predictions and responses to the disaster in the Uttarakhand State of India (February 7, 2021).
What did we find interesting in these materials?
1. A tourist area surrounded by factors (unfavorable for hydropower).
Uttarakhand, as a separate state, was separated from the state of Uttar Pradesh.
For this state, the following factors are very important:
1) Uttarakhand is unique from a geological point of view. Geological activity creates enormous instability, which makes it irrational to place a large hydropower facilities in Uttarakhand.
2) There are warnings that any power projects at an altitude of more than 2,200 meters above sea level are very dangerous and can cause or target catastrophic events.
3) Mountainous areas are affected by general climate change, global warming.
4) The International Renewable Energy Agency estimated that in 2019, the average levelised cost of electricity in India was $0.060 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for small hydropower projects added over the last decade. (https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/the-hindu-explains-why-are-geologists-worried-about-a-slew-of-hydroelectric-projects-and-environmental-stress-in-uttarakhand/article33831867.ece) Perhaps such electricity prices cast doubt on the feasibility of many large power facilities under construction.
2. A tourist area. A bit of history.
Significant tourist sites find themselves in a zone unfavorable for the construction of power facilities.
'After 1962, the Indian government recognised that the world's highest and loftiest mountain range no longer served as an insurmountable wall. To safeguard against future incursions, a massive development programme along the country's mountainous northern border was launched. Agencies such as the Border Roads Organisation, the Indo Tibetan Border Police, and the THDC India Limited (formerly Tehri Hydro Development Corporation Limited) were established. They were granted sizeable budgets, and charged with the construction of roads, tunnels, bridges, cantonments, hospitals, dams, and telecommunication pylons.
Over time, these efforts stimulated the region's economy, nurtured new settlements, and introduced infrastructure that facilitated pilgrimage to select sacred centres. The foundations laid by the agencies intensified after 2000 when owing to regional demands for greater political autonomy, Uttarakhand was carved out of sprawling Uttar Pradesh. Recognising religious tourism as an important source of income for a landlocked State mostly covered by snowcapped peaks and dense forests, a succession of governments have created further amenities for pilgrims, widely publicised initiatives, and embarked on the construction of new dams, multi-lane highways, and railroads. As a result of these efforts, many more individuals now undertake sacred journeys, which until 60 years ago were made by only the bravest, fittest, and most determined pilgrims.
The 2013 Kedarnath floods [a 2013 flood in the state that killed over 4,000 people, mostly in the Kedarnath Valley] and the flash floods that have swept through the Alakananda Valley earlier this week suggest that ham-handed development in the name of god, or otherwise, can come at an agonising cost. Now is the time for our leaders to recommit themselves to the ideas and activism of Chandi Prasad Bhatt, Gaura Devi, Guru das Agrawal, Ravi Chopra, Sunderlal Bahuguna, Vandana Shiva, and other Gandhian environmentalists and social workers. Over the past few decades, they have mobilised local communities to protect Uttarakhand's forests, created local employment, and questioned the wisdom of constructing large hydroelectric projects in a seismically sensitive sacred landscape. They have also reminded us that unless we change our course of action, another Himalayan miscalculation is imminent. "(Https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-agonising-cost-of-ham-handed-development/article33814217.ece)
3. The development of hydropower is one of the government priorities.
'India is investing heavily in dams and hydropower, mainly in the Himalayas, especially to reduce carbon emissions. According to some estimates, if the national plan to build 28 river valleys in the hills is implemented over several decades, India's Himalayas will have one dam for every 32 km, which is one of the highest densities in the world. " (https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/troubled-mountains-on-uttarakhand-glacier-disaster/article33785774.ece)
'Uttarakhand diverted over 50,000 hectares of forest land to various development and defence projects in the past 30 years - the fourth highest among all States. (...) Chamoli district, which bore the brunt of the floods, witnessed the second-highest diversion [of forest land]. majority of land was diverted for transmission lines, road laying, and hydel project. " (https://www.thehindu.com/data/over-50000-hectares-of-forest-land-in-uttarakhand-diverted-for-various-projects-in-last-30-years/article33811688.ece)
There is a call to formulate and implement a responsible policy in the field of ecological and religious tourism.
"News reports of ancient temples having been swept away in the Alakananda's raging waters are bringing back traumatic memories of the Kedarnath floods in 2013." (https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-agonising-cost-of-ham-handed-development/article33814217.ece)
The risk of destabilizing the river regime in Asia (by 2100) is mentioned.
4. Environmental risks and environmental warnings.
'The Chopra Committee suggested that 23 of the 24 proposed dam projects it reviewed be cancelled for the potential damage they could do. However, even after all these years, the matter remains pending in the Supreme Court, and environmental norms for dam construction continue to be flouted in Uttarakhand. (...) Irrespective of the evidence, the Uttarakhand government plans on continuing to build dams as a source of revenue. The State plans to construct up to 450 hydropower projects of 27,039 MW installed capacity. Clearly, the Uttarakhand government has chosen to ignore the disastrous impacts of rampant dam-building. It is clear that dams worsen disasters, and for this to be ignored by the State authorities is unfortunate. " (https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/dams-and-damages/article33795426.ece)
The materials name eight major power projects:
The eight major projects in Uttarakhand are the 171-Mw Lata Tapovan (NTPC) Central; 520-Mw Tapovan Vishnugad (NTPC), 1000-Mw Tehri PSS (THDC) Central, 444-Mw Vishnugad Pipalkoti (THDC); 60-Mw Naitwar Mori (SJVNL); 120-Mw Vyasi (UJVNL), 76-Mw Phata Byung (LANCO) a private company commissioned project and the 99-Mw Singoli Bhatwari (L&T). (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/projects-above-an-elevation-of-2200-metres-recipe-for-disaster-experts/article33785448.ece)
5. Government incentives for hydropower.
Since March 2019, there has been a policy of strengthening incentives of various kinds to make hydropower attractive.
On July 4, 2009, the Centre for Glaciology was launched. 'A dedicated team of scientists was deployed to document, study and understand the glaciers in the Himalayan mountain range. This Centre was to conduct research in mountain hazards with a particular focus on glacial hazards, Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) and Landslide Lake Outburst Flood (LLOF).
On 28 February 2014, the Cabinet approved the Mission on Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem. (...)
In 2017, scientists at the Centre for Glaciology submitted a detailed report on floods in the Himalayas. Researchers also raised concerns over the manner in which permission was granted to new power projects along glacial-fed rivers in the Himalaya region. However, in July 2020, the Centre for Glaciology was abruptly closed down by the Modi government. (...)
Was it simply a cost cutting exercise or scientific reports vexed the political bosses in Delhi?
This move is not just anti-science but could possibly put millions of lives at risk. There are over 9500 glaciers varying in size, from small, niche glaciers to a large 74 km long Siachen glacier. These glaciers spread across the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. The Ganga basin has 1578 glaciers with a total covered area of 3.78 lakh sq km. The remaining nearly 8000 glaciers are part of the Indus basin covering a total area of 36,431 sq km. According to the Geological Survey of India (GSI) most glaciers are retreating or showing degenerative conditions along the glacier front. (...)
But instead, the Modi government chose to shut down the only centre which had a mandate to study the Himalayan glaciers. " (https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/former-chief-minister-prithviraj-chavan-on-uttarakhand-2021-glacial-burst-himalayan-tragedy-environmental-destruction-modi-govt)
6. Attempts to protect themselves from the power industry.
Examples of disagreement with the incentive policy for electricity facilities in Uttarakhand are given:
GD Agrawal, a former scientist who'd become a hermit and crusader for the Ganga, had fasted for over a 100 days and ultimately died in October, 2018. Among the reasons for his fast was a stop to the projects such as the Vishnugad Pipalkoti on the Alaknanda; the Singoli Bhatwari and Phata Byung projects on the Mandakini and all projects on the Alaknanda and its tributaries. (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/projects-above-an-elevation-of-2200-metres-recipe-for-disaster-experts/article33785448.ece)
'Uttarakhand has over 17 major hydroelectric power projects and dozens of other micro ones. (...)
Activists have also been fighting against deforestation of the mountains, dynamiting of the hills, sand mining, and quarrying activities. But their pleas have fallen on deaf ears, as government officials and private contractors pursued an aggressive and extractive form of development.
Two years ago, residents of Raini village in Chamoli district pressed the alarm button by filing a public interest litigation case in the Uttarakhand High Court about the destruction wrought in the name of development by the RGHEP. The court issued orders to officials to look into the matter. But nothing was done. " (https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/disaster-underscores-dam-danger-in-indias-uttarakhand/)
[MCMXСIX. Two years - after the solution of the Bureya problem. A historical essay. - 8 February 2021.
MMVI. On the issue of the incident in India (in Uttarakhand) on February 7, 2021. A note. - February 12, 2021.
MMXIII. An army of miniature satellites and the miniature doses of information on the Uttarakhand incident (February 7, 2021). A brief review. - February 16, 2021.
MMXV. A development of tourism in Uttarakhand and on Lake Baikal. The note. - February 17, 2021.
MMXXXI. Additional details regarding the Uttarakhand disaster (7 February 2021). The note. - February 23, 2021.].
March 1, 2021 11:50
Translation from Russian into English: March 1, 2021 17:10.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Типичный сценарий для Байкала? Катастрофа в Уттаракханде (7 февраля 2021 г.). Прогнозы и тенденции. Очерк'.