Аннотация: A purchasing power of the population in 2021. A note.
A purchasing power of the population in 2021. A note.
On January 16, 2020, in the futurological note "[MCCXXVII.] The economic forecast", we formulated the following perspective:
"Most likely, the purchasing power of the population will be falling, and the debt of the broad masses of the population will growing.
The most likely will be a "Venezuelan scenario with a Russial specificity".".
Today I meet headlines about the report of the Lenta retailer [super- and hypermarket chain].
Well, that's interesting...
I do not have much confidence in official statistics, so I have to navigate the general economic situation using indirect data.
A lot of different economic indicators, each of which is calculated according to rather complex rules.
Either I need to enter the faculty of economics and to get another diploma in order to pretend to be smart and figure it all out, or ...
My attention stops at the phrase: "Revenue grew by 8.6% to 483.6 billion rubles. compared to 445.5 billion rubles. in 2020" [unofficial translation]
What are the indicators of price increases?? Some figures sounded in the public space ... If the price increase (in percentage terms) exceeded the revenue growth, then the question arises - was there a real increase in revenue?
Let's move on to a more interesting indicator - the average check.
Unexpectedly, the search for indicators of the average check turned out to be difficult ... At some point, I even got tired of looking for, but I gave myself perseverance, and, behold, tables [lists of indicators] appeared ...
Again, a lot of indicators ... Again to study at the faculty of economics?
"The expansion of the Mini Lenta chain of stores continues successfully. At the end of the year, 133 such stores were opened, with 85 of them in the fourth quarter." [unofficial translation]
A new store appears within walking distance, local residents are interested - they, of course, come in, look ... Whether they will come in the next quarter - time will tell.
So we (have to) move from general indicators to hypermarkets.
"Operating results for the 4th quarter and 2021, year-on-year
Revenue"
Revenue grew by 8.6%, retail revenue grew by 8.8%, hypermarkets by 4.4% (2021 to 2020).
Average bill [average check] 1,092 (2021), 1,115 (2020), Change - [minus] 23, Change (%) - [minus] 2.1%.
The same, but for hypermarkets: 1,287 (2021), 1,237 (2020), Change 50, Change (%) 4.0%. [unofficial translation]
What about traffic (which I assume is the number of customers who make a purchase)?
Number of checks [bills] (million) Hypermarkets 324 (2021), 323 (2020), Change 1, Change (%) 0.4%. [unofficial translation]
(The number of checks [bills] is an important indicator ... An increase of 1 million, by 0.4% ...). (Leaders, in whose subordination are large teams, are they able to influence this indicator?).
So, indicators such as "number of checks", "average check", "revenue" make us think about price growth indicators and reflect on the dynamics of the purchasing power of the population in 2021.
However, how to compare the idea of increasing the purchasing power of the population with periodically leaking information about the growth of population debt?..
Of course, it is much more difficult to increase the purchasing power of the population than to "remove" information about a property located at Muskatnaya Street in Rostov-on-Don from electronic databases ...
An interested citizen between reflections: "Am I the owner? Or am I not the owner?" maybe even go to the Lenta hypermarket for some purchase and knock out a check for the bought bread and for a little bag of millet for the birds ...
February 22, 2022 06:03
Translation from Russian into English: February 22, 2022 06:57
Владимир Владимирович Залесский "Покупательная способность населения в 2021 году. Заметка".
{ 2817. Покупательная способность населения в 2021 году. Заметка.
MMDCCLXXXVII. A purchasing power of the population in 2021. A note. }