Аннотация: A brief history of the "Bureya problem". December 14, 2019
A brief history of the "Bureya problem". December 14, 2019
On December 12, 2018, the "Bureya problem" was recorded by the organization processing space monitoring data - the Far Eastern center of the Federal state budgetary institution "Research center for space Hydrometeorology"Planeta" (Дальневосточный центр ФГБУ "Научно-исследовательский центр космической гидрометеорологии "Планета"). The organization notified all the main management and control organizations of the Far East.
The problem was known directly or indirectly until December 12, 2019. ("Interest in the area is caused by information about the decrease in the inflow of water into the reservoir of Bureya [Bureyskaya] HPP, observed in the last few days").
So there are two undetermined dates:
1.Event date - the date of occurrence of the (spontaneous) dam on the Bureya river.
2. Date of receipt of information about the appearance of the (spontaneous) dam.
Until December 21, 2018, information about the occurrence of a dam on the Bureya river was available, but was not public.
After the appearance of Alexander Markanov and Anatoly Ivanov on the 'place of the event' on December 21, 2018, and after Alexander Markanov's appeal to local authorities, the "Bureya problem" became the property of the media and the public.
The first stage was dominated by wait-and-see mood. It was similar (partly) to the pre-holiday time after the Chernobyl disaster [26 April 1986 - 1 May 1986].
"And suddenly somehow all by itself will resolve?".
The wait-and-see mood was based on the following (presumed) considerations:
1.The 'place of the event' [the place of (spontaneous) dam] is remote, is far, deserted,
2. Frost 30-40 degrees, a wind,
3. The inability to deliver equipment to the 'place of the event', to organize the work.
4. Nothing will happen to the dam. The time will come, the water will begin to overflow over the upper edge of the dam, everything will return "to normal".
The author of this 'Brief history' adhered to a different position.
He was worried about the prospect of a breaking through the dam and directing a huge wave towards the Amur River and the Chinese territory.
In the event of damage to the Chinese territory, a political changes in the Far East region were inevitable. By analogy with the Chernobyl problem.
The wait-and-see attitude was a clearly untenable option.
At the very least, it seemed necessary to involve international organizations in the solution of the problem in order to neutralize the possible international reaction in the most unfavorable scenario.
It was clear that something had to be done about the dam.
Some support was provided by the interview of Peter Osipov, Director of the Amur Branch of the World Wide Fund of Russia (the interview was posted on December 27, 2018, 22: 31). Peter Osipov called for the elimination of the dam through blasting (this was in his understanding one of the main options).
The so-called "science" emphasized the difficulty of work on the elimination of the dam, the riskiness of work in connection with the possibility of a "new" "landslide", etc.
On January 10, 2019 there was information about the instruction of the President of the Russian Federation to the Ministry of defense of the Russian Federation to take measures for "clearing of the riverbed and carrying out drilling and blasting works in order to restore the normal hydrological regime of the Bureya reservoir" .
A semi-official motivation of the works was a such:
(1) A necessity of a "water supply" of the Bureya (Bureyskaya) HPP,
(2) Risk of flooding of huge territories and some strategic objects (in mass media even the opinion was sounded that at the most unfavorable variant the Verkhnebureinsky district of Khabarovsk Krai can be flooded completely).
During the discussion of the works, the possibility of bombing [from aircrafts] the dam was one of the topics.
Nevertheless, the military experts chose the optimal direction of work, and the work was carried out extremely efficiently.
A heroic and highly skilled work carried out in a short time in extreme conditions, deserve a separate detailed story.
On February 1, 2019, an artificial channel was created in the dam. The dam became a FORMER dam.
A "science" continued its "useful" activities.
Opinions were expressed that the created channel is not particularly useful. - It will be clogged with ice and fragments of trees, and its usefulness is doubtful.
In addition, before the works, during the works, and after the works on the creation of the canal, a high probability of an even more powerful "landslide" - at the same place ('place of the event') - was the subject of constant, persistent warnings.
In the spring, on the night of may 7, 2019, the (former) dam began to rapidly collapse under the influence of natural causes. The water level in front of the (former) dam began to fall sharply.
Thus, the assumption about the possibility of sudden spontaneous destruction of the dam under the influence of natural causes and the direction of a huge wave towards the Chinese territory was confirmed.
As of the morning of May 7, 2019, the water level in the Bureya River at the hydropost near the settlement of Chekunda decreased by more than 3.5 meters. However, the difference in water levels before and after the former dam, still, remained significant - the difference was about 3 meters.
Gradually the (spontaneous) dam was eroded with a river water, the canal expanded and the water levels before and after the (former) dam equalled. Today, the level difference is approximately 16 centimeters.
After the spontaneous destruction of the (former) dam, it became clear that the canal was not clogged with ice or fragments of trees.
A "new", even more powerful "landslide" on the same place did not happen.
A life returned into a normal track.
Risks of floods and landslides existed before the spontaneous dam...
As of today (December 14, 2019), two mysteries remain:
1. Reasons for the formation of a (spontaneous) dam in December 2018,
2. A perspectives of the resolution of the Governor of the Khabarovsk Krai of 19.01.2019 No. 38-рп on the introduction of an emergency mode in the Verkhnebureinsky district of the Khabarovsk Krai. If this resolution has not yet been canceled, then the question is when it will be canceled (will lose force).
December 14, 2019 14:11
Translation from Russian into English: December 15, 2019 05:13.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Краткая история 'Бурейской проблемы'. 14 декабря 2019 г.'.